TOOLBOX
Modeling & Forecasting
Want to bring more structure or quantification into your worldbuilding? This section collects tools and frameworks for scenario modeling, forecasting, and stress-testing. Includes causal mapping, probability estimation, systems thinking, and other structured methods. Use these to clarify assumptions, explore cause-effect dynamics, and stress-test possible futures.
Scenario Modeling
Structured methods for building detailed, branching futures.
Tool/Method
Assesses how different drivers influence each other.
Explores all possible combinations of key future-shaping variables.
Identify scenario archetypes systematically.
Uses feedback loops and time delays to simulate real-world systems.
Model population, resource use, policy effects, etc.
Explore ripple effects of developments like bio-enhancement or AI regulation.
Forecasting & Probabilistic Thinking
Tools for estimating the likelihood of future events.
Tool/Method
A crowd-forecasting platform where users predict future events.
Track community predictions on AI timelines, geopolitics, etc.
Runs structured forecasting tournaments and research projects.
Get calibrated insight into hard-to-predict questions.
Training and tools for intuitive probability estimation.
Identify scenario archetypes systematically.
Uses elite forecasters to estimate future developments.
Understand where expert consensus is converging.
Uses language models to assist human forecasters in decomposing questions.
Boost forecasting productivity and reduce overconfidence.
Stress Testing & Robustness Checks
Tools for challenging your worldbuilding assumptions and designs.
Tool/Method
Intentionally stress-test a scenario or plan by looking for failure points.
Avoid blind spots or internal inconsistencies.
Test how a policy or scenario holds up under different possible futures.
Check how resilient a proposal is to external shocks.
A structured session where someone argues against your scenario or strategy.
Sharpen your reasoning and address weak links.
Map different levels of uncertainty (knowns, unknowns, unknowables).
Clarify what is stable vs. speculative in your scenario.
Useful Tools & Platforms
Platforms and software that support modeling or structured thinking.
Tool
Description
Visual mapping tool for systems, stakeholders, and causal loops.
Software for system dynamics and scenario simulation.
An intuitive system dynamics modeling tool for beginners.
Language-model-assisted forecasting decompositions.
Open platform for forecasting hard questions.
Public forecasting tournaments.